concepts of forecasting & predictions

 

In business, forecasting systems provide various techniques, although no specific one is best suited for all scenarios and items. The goal of a forecaster is to create a valuable forecast from available data via the technique that is suitable for various patterns of demand. Quantitative and judgment methods are the general types of forecasting techniques utilized.

 

Quantitative methods consist of time-series analysis – a process which depends on past information to predict the future, it also acknowledges seasonal patterns as well as trends; casual methods – utilizes historical data on independent variables to predict; and trend projection with regression – a hybrid between casual method and time-series technique.

Judgment methods consist of executive opinion – a method in which the technical knowledge, experience, and opinions of managers are summarized to achieve a forecast; salesforce estimates – are forecasts aggregated from estimates made regularly by an organization’s salesforce; and market research – a systematic approach to find out external consumer interest in a product or service by developing and testing hypotheses via data gathering surveys. These judgment methods are then translated into quantitative estimates (Krajewski, et al., 2013 ). Furthermore, the Delphi method is also part of judgment methods.

Nikola Tesla, a Serbian-American physicist, and engineer had numerous significant scientific contributions; he was a futurist that possessed a spectacular imagination – an imagination that led to several predictions about future technology. Astonishingly, we are utilizing some of those predicted technologies today, I will elaborate on a couple of those predictions that have come to fruition.

Tesla described autonomous robots, drones, and self-driving cars. He pictured the future having remote-controlled machines (drones) and tried proving his point in 1898 by demonstrating with a remote-controlled boat. Witnesses were so flabbergasted and in disbelief they assumed that the boat was being controlled by a midget monkey (Turi, 2014). Tesla imagined cars making self-informed decisions and operating themselves. Furthermore, he predicted the use of Wi-Fi and Internet of Things in 1926; by the 1980s the Internet was invented, by the 1990s Wi-Fi became a thing. Tesla also vividly pictured the use of smartphones stating that the wireless device will be utilized for phone calls and video (McSweeney, 2019). In today’s world, we utilize many of Tesla’s three-hundred patented inventions – he candidly deserves the accolades rendered to him.

  

                                                                      

 

 

References

Krajewski, L. J., Ritzman, L. P., & Malhotra, M. K. (2013). Operations management: Processes and supply chains (Vol. 1). Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson.

McSweeney, K. (2019, July 5). The intersection of technology, innovation & creativity. Retrieved August 19, 2020, from https://now.northropgrumman.com/4-of-nikola-teslas-predictions-that-came-true/

Turi, J. (2014, January 19). Tesla's toy boat: A drone before its time. Retrieved August 19, 2020, from https://www.engadget.com/2014-01-19-nikola-teslas-remote-control-boat.html